I've predicted a lot, and it wouldn't be feasible for me to analyze every single one of my prognostications. I will hit some of the highlights--and a lot of the lowlights.
My first ever Lost post was at the end of season 2. In it, I predicted/wondered/considered:
- Maybe the Others' camp that we see in season 2 is a fake (it was).
- How the Others know about the Pala ferry and the magic bearing to leave the Island (probably an artifact of what Ben knew from the DHARMA days).
- "What's up with the four-toed statue?" Ah, if only...
- Whether Radzinsky knew anything about the workings of the Swan station and how he could be traced back to the DHARMA Initiative. Of course, by now we know that he was the guy who designed the Swan, but it would have been a stretch to have predicted that back in season 2.
- I offered a willingness to bet that Widmore "knows something about what's going on on the Island." It seems so ludicrously obvious in hindsight.
- What would happen with the season 1 dangling power cable; turns out we'd have to wait for season 3 to see the Looking Glass.
- That the Others were the remnants of DHARMA who banded together after they found out Alvar Hanso was doing something terrible. Like many fans, I bought way too much stock in Hanso during season 2, thinking that he'd end up being important to the story at all.
- Finally, quoting my own earlier post: "So how did Hanso come to fund the Dharma Initiative at all? Magnus Hanso (whose "resting place," according to the Blast Door Map, is the Black Rock) was Alvar's father; he was the captain of the Black Rock. Alvar first came to the island while he was looking for his father. At this time, he became aware of the strange electromagnetic fluctuations coming from the area around the Swan. Hanso decided to fund the Dharma Initiative to study those fluctuations." Turns out Magnus is actually Alvar's great-grandfather, but I still think the rest of that theory is entirely plausible.
Being in France at the end of season 3, I didn't make a post then, but I was back in full force at the end of season 4. My thoughts from then:
- In one of my favorite bad theories from several years ago, I thought that Richard's agelessness was because he was a manifestation of the smoke monster.
- I actually did put forth the theory that Christian was another Yemi-like manifestation of the smoke monster, but I don't seem to have believed my own theory, probably because of the inconsistencies with his presence in Jacob's cabin.
- Another "ah, if only...": "How in the hell did [the smoke monster] get on the island, and who put it there? Why?"
- I wondered if Rousseau's expedition, Widmore's boat race around the world, and the real Henry Gale's balloon ride were Widmore's pre-freighter attempts to find the Island. We now know that Widmore was still on the Island when Rousseau's team landed, but my theory stands for the other two.
- What are the "rules" between Ben and Widmore? We never really find out. I think they're akin to a "gentleman's agreement" where Widmore's exile came with some sort of implicit rules that Ben and Widmore wouldn't interfere with each others' lives following the exile.
- How do we reconcile the similar but not identical sets of orders given to the two teams (the science team and the mercenary team) on the freighter? Good question. Given the Widmore sent the freighter, and put both Keamy's and Naomi's people on it, why is there so much discord between the two teams?
- Another theory totally off-base that I get a kick out of now: Matthew Abbadon worked for DHARMA, who sent the science team to the Island to get revenge on Ben for the Purge.
- I think by this point, we can reasonably conclude that Widmore put the wreckage in the Sunda Trench to distract the worldwide media from the possibility that Oceanic 815 crashed on his beloved Island.
In seasons 5 and 6, I started much more in-depth analysis posts roughly every month. Among my gems in season 5:
- In my proudest moment, I did predict that Jacob and/or his people had been on the Island since Roman times.
- Widmore was forced to turn the Wheel. Later in season 5, we learn that his exile was a much more mundane walk down a pier, but this wasn't too far off.
- When Eloise suggested that the Island "wasn't finished with Desmond" yet, I expected Desmond to have to trek back to the Island to save Penny, or that she'd die and Desmond would have to return to the Island to "bring her back" (to whatever extent the Island allows). Happily, no fate this tragic ever befell Penny.
- At various moments, I suspected that the Statue was Horus, then Sobek, and I had reasoning for both of them far better than "it looks like Taweret." According to the producers, the Statue is meant to represent Taweret, but I'm still in denial.
- Now I think that Richard's immortality comes from his "creative use of time travel", which is a more plausible theory than "Richard is actually the monster," but still not close to the truth.
- I'm back to waffling on Christian Shephard by the end of season 5. Apparently I bought into the Man in Black's lie that "Christian" had the authority to speak for Jacob.
- And I never came close to calling that the Man in Black and the smoke monster were the same entity.
Before the season started, I started forming theories about the episodes, centricities, and major plot points of season 6.
- I did predict the Richard Alpert reveal episode near the middle of the season, where he decides his allegiance for the final battle. I predicted it would be called "... At Sea" in a nod to some season 1 titles (and secretly, I still like my title better, even though "Ab Aeterno" is fine too).
- I did predict the volcano showing up at some point, and Desmond having something to do with it. But my theory was way wackier than what actually happened. I thought that the volcano would explode halfway through the season and that Desmond would have to work the second half of the season using his electromagnetic immunity and time travel abilities to undo it. In my defense, I did call that "Desmond’s unique talents are the Chekhov’s gun that has to be used before the end of the show."
- I also predicted that the Jin/Sun reunion episode would be far earlier than it actually was, and that it would be called "...Love" in another shout-out to the season 1 patterns. I did predict a late-season episode called "The Candidate", but like most fans, I read way too far into Ilana and Bram's speculation that Lapidus was a "possible candidate".
Finally, throughout season 6, I made a whole of awful predictions about the flash-sideways... but who didn't?
Currently listening: "Funnyman", KT Tunstall
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